As Democrats dominate mail-in early voting, President Donald Trump will have to rely on strong in-person Election Day turnout among Republicans to defeat Democratic challenger Joe Biden.

The spread of the COVID-19 virus is surging in several Midwest battleground states – Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan – where the president needs Republican voters to flock to the polls.

Trump’s yearlong disparagement of mail-in voting turned off many of his voters to absentee ballots. Democrats embraced the method, casting nearly double the mail-in ballots of Republican voters nationwide. Though Republicans narrowed the gap with in-person early voting, Trump heads into Election Day facing a likely vote deficit nationally and in swing states. 

At least 92 million people, a record, have voted early, either in person or by mail, according to the United States Elections Project.

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